My understanding is that it will hit q4 this or q1 next year. It's a crap shoot, really.

I'm figuring that credit markets, bursting tech bubble, and all the crap around the trade treaties will all hit at the same time.

Ukraine could be next. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/ukraine-eurobonds-fall-4th-day-as-bofaml-warns-on-default-risks

Ukraine has threatened to stop paying its international creditors if they don’t accept a proposal that includes a writedown to the face value of about $19 billion of bonds.