YugeDick

Except that they do have a way of knowing what strains are emerging as most prevalent. They go right to the source and test the afflicted before it spreads to the cities then the rest of the world. That source of course being rural China where the people still bring their farm animals into the home with them for the winter. Which increases the likelihood of animal strains making the leap to humans. This is where such names as swine flu and bird flu come from.

outside-the-box

That explanation is so bad!

YugeDick

From Dr. Nancy Cox, director of the influenza division of the CDC.

“If we do see a new variant virus, we then look at the spread of that virus within China or other countries. If we see that pattern, we take that virus and test it against serum from people who have been vaccinated to see if they have antibodies against that new virus.”

Like I said, they test the afflicted in the rural areas of China, and elsewhere obviously, to determine new strains before they spread to the rest of the world.

o0shad0o

It's still a guess, and they've been guessing especially badly lately. The effectiveness was about 60% a few years ago, and now it's down to 30% or so? And you need 90+% immune for herd immunization to work for humans.