asabovesobelow

I have an ongoing bet with my GF. I swear they will not let trump enter office. Most likely he will die by his worst fear. Muslims.

scvoon

If he does get elected, and he's not controlled opposition, and he's not taken out somehow, it'll be interesting to look for marked changes in behavior and/or speech during his term.

pray_the_gay_away

They've done worse.

Drenki

If Trump dies in any suspicious way, they will be fighting a full-fledged civil war.

They will cheat him at the polls. There still may be revolt.

Unreasonable

World War. My predictions are, if Trump is assassinated, China would strike the Pacific Navy within 6 hours, Russia would have troops in Alaska within 72 hours, Texas would secede within 24 hours, then the situation would devolve into WWIII really quickly. North Korea would invade South Korea with troops, the middle east would erupt into who knows what. The US Military would fraction, with loyalists and rebels, States would call up their guard within a few days and war between states would happen within a week or so, perhaps with Texas running strikes against Chicago. The west coast would be a mess, Mexico would invade California, Oregon and Washington would have to deal with Russians and possibly Chinese. More than likely it would be a rural versus urban situation... who knows. Bad.. it would be bad.

scvoon

I like your analysis, but can you explain why a Trump assassination would precipitate Chinese military action?

Unreasonable

Oh it'd precipitate a global conflict. An assassination of a popular political candidate prior to an election would spark violent revolt in any other country, why not in the US? It would clearly indicate to China and Russia that the US is weak politically and they know for sure it's in disarray militarily. As much as half the US military would go rogue, but definitely a large faction. A first strike would be ripe.

Europe isn't as weak as Alaska, and that would be a huge gain, cripple Canada and give a land route to central America. China would strike with their new naval destroying missile which is now in mass production. Navies are outdated anyways. Essentially the new war is an insurgent one, in which small teams infiltrate and target and a missile gets launched from somewhere to hit it. The West coast would fall quickly and California would be a prime target.

The States would erupt in civil war, and who knows what happens after the first 72 hours. But that's what I would plan for if I were a Russian general.

scvoon

I think I was missing the part about a civil war (or revolts at least) first starting in the US. Now a Chinese first strike makes more sense. Thanks.

Drenki

Keep in mind, China has no real naval power and their army / airforce are not much better. They have some pretty good missile systems, though, and their cyber warfare division exists, though I think the actual threat is mintoras the NSA et. al. effectively control all online communications and if we just disengage the undersea cables, they have no way to even reach us electronically.

Texas is not going to secede after hostilities start. Maybe they secede after Trump is gone and there's internal strife in the U.S. They certainly aren't going to run strikes against Chicago.

There is really no value in the Russian army doing a land invasion of the U.S. They would move on Europe which has nearly no defense against them - everything hinges on nuclear deterrents.

Mexico is not going to be doing much of anything except shitting its pants. They have no defense against nukes.

North Korea would certainly invade South Korea, but I have a feeling South Korea's more advanced tech would ensure they didn't get very far. Now their handful of nukes, that's a different story. But those are to keep the US away, not to destroy their homeland - the people of North and South Korea see the situation more like a family feud than as ruthless hostility.

Unreasonable

Nice analysis!

It'd be bad for damn sure.